The greatest thing about betting on baseball is the fact that there are anywhere from 10 to 15 games per day, every day! And almost every day you can guarantee at least two underdogs will come out on top. This means there is tremendous value if you know where to look for it. We’ll get into the Best Bet Baseball strategy a little bit later, but for now we want to cover the basics of betting on baseball.
Betting on Baseball may appear to be similar to betting on other sports but there are some major differences that must be considered. Once you clearly understand the primary differences of handicapping baseball, you will be on your way to more success with your baseball picks.
Before we explain the Money Line and why it is the primary bet in baseball, it’s important we quickly discuss some key elements that make betting on baseball different than other sports.
Length of the MLB Season (longer season = more data = better decision)
Parity (Worst teams win 40%- Best teams lose 40%)
Starting Pitching (Favorite/Underdog/Favorite)
Scoring (Most baseball games are decided by 1 or 2)
Over/Under (extra innnigs)
In football and most other sports, you usually are betting on a point spread. For example, in the NFL, it is not uncommon for a very good team to finish with a 75% or higher winning percentage. Likewise, you also see a share of football teams win only 25% of their games. A lot of times, these teams play each other and you are most likely betting on the margin of victory more than the overall winner. Yes, you can bet on the outright winner in NFL but there is usually little value unless you are able to pick an upset which are less common.
In MLB (Major League Baseball), there are 162 games a year and even the worst team still ends up winning around 40% of their games and the best teams are lucky to win 62% of their games. This means that the difference between the best and worst teams is only about 22%. If the range between the absolute best and worst is 22%, you can only imagine what happens when you start comparing more of the average teams.
Also, in baseball, the strengths of match-up greatly depends on the starting pitchers. It is not unlikely for a team to be a huge underdog in the first game of a series and a considerable favorite in the second. The reason is that the starting pitcher and how he matches up against the opponent plays such a big factor in the overall outcome.
Because the season is longer and the game is more based on individual matchups, it is easier to evaluate historical data in baseball than in any other sport. At most, football teams are scheduled to play each other only two times a year. In baseball, teams play each other up to 4 times in one week. More games = more data = better decision making.