Chris Carpenter vs. Mike Leake
Our Best Bet: Reds (+120)
GAME NOTE:
After concluding a successful road trip, the Reds return home to welcome St. Louis for Monday night’s opener of a key National League Central series comforted by one reassuring thought and some kismet.
The thought: Chances are, they will still be in first place when the Cardinals leave town following Wednesday’s game.
The fate: Chris Carpenter never does well pitching on Aug. 9 in Cincinnati.
Sunday’s 11-4 victory in Chicago, while the Cardinals were getting rained out against the Marlins in Miami, bumped the Reds’ division lead to two full games.
Meaning, if they intend to heist the division lead during their visit, the Cardinals will have to sweep the three-game set. And the Reds have not been swept in a series at Great American Ball Park in more than a year, since the Rockies wielded the broom July 31-Aug. 2 last season.
Of course, St. Louis manager Tony La Russa can think of three reasons that could happen: Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Adam Wainwright. La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have maneuvered their rotation into rolling into this series with the Big Three.
No one has a bigger three: In the trio’s starts, the Cardinals are 45-24 for a .652 winning percentage that would easily top any of the Major League’s six divisions.
Leading it off will be Carpenter, who will be opposed by Mike Leake and supported by his personal wizardry over the Reds. He has already beaten them three times this season, permitting only three runs in 21 innings (1.29 ERA), to give him wins in eight straight starts against Cincinnati.
The last time the Reds got the best of him: Aug. 9, 2006, beating him, 8-7, in Ohio.
Leake, who had begun his professional career by not taking a loss until his 13th start, will attempt to rebound from consecutive losses for the first time to maintain the Reds’ momentum.
With their 5-1 tour of Pittsburgh and Chicago, the Reds reconfirmed their claim as one of the NL’s most consistent teams. The Padres and the Giants are the only other teams in the league with winning records both at home and on the road.
The Cardinals are among the more typical clubs suffering from road woes. With Sunday’s rainout leaving them with a split of the two games in Florida, the Cards have won only two of their past nine road series and are 9-17 outside Busch Stadium since May.
Sunday’s rain doused Albert Pujols’ fire, after he’d homered in five of his previous seven games. With a career total of 394, he is two shy of catching Joe Carter for No. 50 on the all-time list.
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips missed Sunday’s series finale against the Cubs in the hopes that he can return against the Cardinals. Phillips sat with a bruised left shin.
We like taking the 1st place team who is an underdog (+120), even going against someone the likes of Carpenter. We like the Reds to score a few early runs and hold on for the win. Good luck!!
